Why are Afghans afraid of 2014?

By Tahir Qadiry BBC Afghanistan reporter

"When are you going to get married?"

On a recent trip to Kabul, this was one of the first questions I asked a good friend who for years professed unending love for his girlfriend.

"I'm waiting for 2014," he said. "I'll see what happens and decide what to do after that."

"Waiting for 2014" is an increasingly common theme in Afghanistan, where uncertainty is growing about what will happen when foreign troops finally leave the country.

When dealing with milestones such as births, marriages and deaths, your average Afghan has certain questions sitting uneasily at the back of their mind.

Will Taliban violence get worse? Will our security forces really be able to cope? Will the country return to civil war?

"You've just come from London, what do you think is going to happen?"

I do live in London, and yet I was asked this many times - and with a real sense of urgency.
Stockpiling cash

The Jahesh charity group run by Mirwais Rahmani cleans streets among other ventures

 

 

Aziz Shah, 38, a clothes shop owner in the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif says this feeling of impending doom has translated into slow sales.

"People just aren't spending money like they used to," he told the BBC. "Everyone is worried about 2014."

Perhaps it is Afghanistan's chequered past that is to blame. It has a woeful track record for maintaining stable government.

When Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the country collapsed into civil war.

And in some areas the "2014 effect" is not just an abstract fear. As foreign troops slowly depart for their homes parts of the economy are feeling the strain.

Afghanistan's once booming housing market has been particularly hard hit.

Houses that used to be rented out to foreign troops and civilian contractors for several thousand dollars a month are now standing empty.

Abdul Ahad used to be an estate agent in Herat province, but gave up his job after seeing house prices fall by half in his area. He is now in Kabul looking for work.

"People try to stockpile cash in case things take a turn for the worse, he says.

Farida is one of the rare female drivers found around Kabul

 

 

There are also fewer job opportunities. Ahmad Samim used to get paid good money as a translator for foreign troops in northern Afghanistan.

"I honestly believe that the growth we saw in the Afghan economy was just an illusion from the very start," he said.

And my friend, the reluctant bridegroom, is not the only one holding back on weddings.

Afghans are famous for holding extravagant nuptial parties, sometimes with more than 1,000 guests, but when I was there I attended few parties - a noticeable change from previous visits - and each time there were barely 200 guests.

"We used to have lots of parties just a year ago, but now people prefer to hold them in their houses," said Mohammad Zalmai, the owner of a hotel in Kabul.
'We clean streets'
There is a pervading sense of gloom and it is easy to succumb to the sense of helplessness.

But your perspective also depends on where you are in the country.

I grew up in the north and witnessed the growth of an extraordinary drive borne out of hardship that nowadays seems to possess young Afghans. The main concerns here, unlike in the south and east where security concerns dominate, are economic.

For others in more rural areas, the harvest is of greater interest than the year 2014.

But after years of living through war, young Afghans are used to playing many roles, doing more than one job at once as part of a conscious effort to be a force for change in the country.

"We share money and buy clothes, foodstuff for the poor," said Mirwais Rahmani, a member of a charity group called Jahesh.

"We are concerned about the future, but evading responsibilities is not the way."

Farida Akbar, one of a small number of woman who drive in Kabul, took me on a tour of Kabul in her silver Toyota.

"We have a charity group, Hadia. We clean most of these streets," she says pointing out a central street in Kabul.

"We plant saplings, we donate food and we even distributed flowers to women on the streets on women's day," she added.

These are examples of the generation who came of age in the last decade which saw unprecedented foreign intervention and investment.

The charity Hadia distributed flowers to women on women's day

 

 

And it is the loss of these certainties that preys on their minds even while they are eager to become the country's future leaders.

Many express concerns about the events beyond their control, such as talks with the Taliban and a fear that Afghanistan could become a pawn in a regional power struggle.

And in recent months militant attacks have been on the rise. I was in Kabul when the Taliban attacked the Supreme Court in June, killing at least 16 people. I sought cover in a nearby hotel.

"You need to be here in Kabul to understand how life is like," one friend told me.

Fears exaggerated?
Some are seriously considering moving abroad.

"I have paid $15,000 for someone to smuggle me to Germany," says Ahmad Wali, a Kabul university graduate, showing me his passport. "I really don't want to be a victim of 2014 and civil war."

President Karzai was recently so concerned by the general feeling of pessimism in the country that he felt moved to intervene. He asked people to calm down, saying nothing was going to happen in 2014.

Last year, he blamed the media - Afghan and foreign - for "propaganda" about what would happen after 2014, which he said was "a tactic to terrify us".

Many Afghan analysts agree with him, arguing that fears are exaggerated.

"The key to Afghanistan's permanent stability is in the hands of the people," says Davood Moradian, of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS).

He sees forthcoming presidential elections as a gateway to Afghanistan's permanent stability.

Coalition forces depart Afghanistan in 2014, leaving behind a skeleton staff for training

 

 

"It is the most important issue that will determine the peace process, security transition, economic transition and overall political direction of the country. If we get the election right, it will be a turning point for the country. Otherwise, we will enter explosive and unpredictable terrain."

I asked charity worker Mirwais Rahmani who spends his time trying to make a difference on the ground, what advice he would offer my friend who postponed his marriage.

"This 2014 is just a superstition and people will get over it. Tell the guy to get married and not waste a year waiting."

He would argue that like many other Afghans, my friend has the power to change the doomsday scenario of 2014 into a new chapter of hope - at least for himself by getting married and throwing a big party.

Afghans prepare to take over security from US, NATO

AP Photo: Allauddin Khan. Afghan National Army soldiers march in Sangin district of Kandahar province southern Afghanistan. Afghanistan's fledgling security forces will soon take the lead for security nationwide. 

 

By Patrick Quinn of Associated Press            

 

JALALABAD, Afghanistan — One of the most significant turning points in one of America's longest and costliest wars is imminent: Afghanistan's fledgling security forces are taking the lead for security nationwide, bringing the moment of truth on the question of whether they are ready to fight an insurgency that remains resilient after nearly 12 years of conflict.

Nowhere is that question more pressing than in this city near the Pakistani border, which is the capital of Nangarhar province. In the province, which has a predominantly Pashtun population, the ethnic group that makes up the Taliban, insurgents regularly ambush government forces, blow up the offices of humanitarian organizations, and control parts of a countryside that has seen a spike in opium poppy cultivation.
Nangarhar is considered so dangerous that foreign military forces still handle security in more than half of its 22 districts.
That will change, after Afghan President Hamid Karzai declares — in an announcement expected soon — that Afghan forces are taking over security around the country and U.S. and other foreign forces will move entirely into a supporting, backseat role. At that point, the remaining districts in Nangarhar, along with other hotspots still in the hands of the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force, will become the Afghan troops' full responsibility.

Residents of Jalalabad, a bustling trading hub and agricultural center on the junction of two rivers, worry about whether the Afghan forces can keep them safe from an insurgency that they say is equipped and trained in neighboring Pakistan. They also fear that the Afghan forces still don't have enough heavy weapons or firepower.
"Our main concern is that for more than 10 years the international community managed to do nothing and that they are now trying to make us strong. It's too little too late," said Lal Mohammad Durrani, a member of the Nangarhar provincial council. "We need more weapons."
NATO training since 2009 has dramatically ramped up the Afghan National Security Forces, bringing it up from 40,000 men and women six years ago to about 352, 000 today. Once the transition is announced, coalition troops will move entirely into a supporting role — training and mentoring, and in emergency situations providing the Afghans backup in combat, mainly in the form of airstrikes and medevac.

AP Photo: Allauddin Khan. An Afghan National Army soldier aims his weapon, in Sangin district of Kandahar province southern Afghanistan.

That is to pave the way for international forces — currently numbering about 100,000 troops, including 66,000 Americans — to leave. By the end of the year, the NATO force will be halved. At the end of 2014, all combat troops will have left and will replaced, if approved by the Afghan government, by a much smaller force that will only train and advise. President Barack Obama has not yet said how many soldiers he will leave in Afghanistan along with NATO forces, but it is thought that it would be about 9,000 U.S. troops and about 6,000 from its allies.
In a series of wide-ranging interviews with Afghan and western military officials, experts and analysts, opinions are mixed as to the state of readiness of the Afghan forces — although nearly all agree they are far better now than they were when the NATO training mission began.
British Lt. Gen. Nick Carter, the deputy commander of coalition forces, said the transition to take the lead in security "represents a significant achievement for the Afghan security forces." But, he added, "That said we will require and need to deliver for the Afghans some fairly significant support for a while to come."
Already, Afghans now carry out 90 percent of military operations around the country. They are in the lead in security in 312 districts nationwide, where 80 percent of Afghanistan's population of nearly 30 million lives — and only 91 districts remain for them to take over — including 12 in Nangarhar.
The transition comes at a time when violence is at levels matching the worst in 12 years, fueling some Afghans' concerns the forces aren't ready.
"We thought this summer would not be easy for the Afghan security forces, but it was not expected to be like this. We have roadside bombs, we have suicide attacks, organized attacks," said Jawed Kohistani, an Afghan political and military analyst. "It is a mistake to transition this quickly."
Jalalabad's relatively peaceful tree-lined streets are crowded with checkpoints, manned by often edgy Afghan army and police worried about car bombs. Insurgents use the province's mountain passes and valleys to sneak in from neighboring Pakistan, where they retain safe havens in that country's lawless Pashtun-dominated tribal belt. Jalalabad is also just a 3-hour drive through craggy passes and gorges to Kabul, which has seen a spate of spectacular suicide attacks in recent weeks.

AP Photo: Rahmat Gul. Al Hajj Malak Nazir, director of the provincial council is convinced the Taliban will keep fighting after Afghanistan's army and police shortly take control for security around the country.

 

Al Hajj Malak Nazir — the local head of the Afghan High Peace Council, a body created in an attempt to reach out to the Taliban — said that even though he considers Afghan forces to be under-equipped, he believes they will eventually prevail over the insurgency.
"The Taliban can't take all of Afghanistan. After transition they could take a district, but they won't be able to keep it," he said. That. He added, is why he has been trying to convince the Taliban to enter negotiations.
"This is a very good opportunity for the Taliban to say they will stop fighting. But they won't," he said. "The Americans are now saying they are leaving, but the Taliban never say they are leaving."
Few believe the Taliban will keep promises they have made in the past to stop fighting when foreign military forces are gone. They have not stopped in any province where Afghan forces have taken the lead.  They have also rebuffed numerous attempts to start peace talks in the past year and have instead intensified a campaign that mostly targets urban centers and government installations.
There is overall agreement, however, they don't have much support outside their traditional areas and can't win militarily against the Afghan forces.
"I think, if the Taliban tried to come back, it would have to come back in a very different way. It would have to come back and participate politically," Lt. Gen. Carter said. "It is my sense that civil society, which is the future of this country, absolutely would not put up with sorts of standards that were here 15 years ago. And, therefore, my sense is that ultimately it is the politics that will determine this, and not the violence that determines this."
On battlefields around the country, Afghan forces plan and carry out operations on their own, with little help from coalition forces. They are often effective, but still need work on logistics and effectively using the weapons they have.
Casualty figures are indicative of the fight. More than 330 Afghan army soldiers have died so far this year, according to a tally by the Associated Press.

Last year, more than 1,200 Afghan soldiers died, compared to more than 550 in 2011, according to data compiled by the Washington-based Brookings Institution. By comparison, coalition casualties have declined as they take forces off the battlefield — 81 so far this year, 394 in 2012 and 543 in 2011.
About 1,481 militants were reported to have been killed by coalition and Afghan forces so far this year, compared with close to 3,000 militants for all of last year. The NATO command does not issue reports on the number of insurgents its troops have killed, and Afghan military figures, from which the AP compiles its data, cannot be independently verified.

AP Photo: Rahmat Gul. Afghan Army Chief of Staff Gen. Sher Mohammad Karimi has backed the national army and police to ensure safety in Afghanistan when it takes responsibility for security.

 

"There is no doubt about the ability of the Afghan national army and police. The nation should trust them, and they do," said the Afghan Army Chief of Staff Gen. Sher Mohammad Karimi.
The veteran commander rattled off a series of recent victories over insurgents, including kicking them out of parts of eastern Nuristan that they had controlled for about two years.
"There wasn't a single bit of support from the international community. Only the Afghan national army and national police were able to do that and they did it," he said.
But he grudgingly agreed Afghan troops still need help. That includes the use of coalition air power — including medical evacuations — help with locating roadside bombs and further developing the armed forces. They also need to bring down an attrition rate of 3 to 4 percent a month, which means NATO now has to help train 50,000 new recruits a year.
The U.S. has said that Afghanistan will get the weapons it requires to fight an insurgency, including a large fleet of MI-17 transport helicopters, cargo planes and ground support airplanes. The heaviest weapon the Afghan army will have is a howitzer.
"The force is designed according to the threat, and the threat here is an insurgency. The design of the ANSF is appropriate to counter that threat," said German Gen. Hans-Lothar Domrose, the commander of the NATO force that oversees ISAF.
The Afghans, on the other hand, want battle tanks and modern fighter jets — which they are unlikely to get given their cost and the training required to use them.
The war has already proven very costly
Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction John Sopko last April estimated that the ANSF has so far cost the American taxpayer $54 billion. The overall cost of the war is more difficult to estimate, but for America alone the Center for Strategic and International Studies put the price at about $650 billion through the end of 2013.